Goss: High school football playoff picture begins to take shape

Plainfield North's Trent Cavin. | John Patsch~For Sun-Times Media

Updated: October 22, 2012 6:13AM

With Week 5 in the high school football season upon us, the time is right to begin looking at playoff possibilities for area teams.

Based on what we know so far in 2012, and what recent history dictates, any team that does not have at least 17 playoff points (opponent victories) should think in terms of needing to win six games rather than five to qualify. If you have 18 playoff points or more, chances are you will be safe if you can get to five victories.

So what does that mean for our area schools?

Let’s start with the “locks,” which were determined after reviewing the records and remaining schedules for all our teams. Bolingbrook (4-0) will be in Class 8A; Lincoln-Way East (4-0) and Providence (3-1) in 7A; Lemont (4-0) in 6A; Joliet Catholic (3-1) and Morris (4-0) in 5A; Coal City (4-0) in 4A and Wilmington (3-1) in 3A.

There is a possibility Morris will slip to 4A, but for now I believe the Redskins are destined for 5A. Don’t believe the talk you may hear that Coal City could wind up in 3A or Providence in 6A.

Most of the “locks” are likely to have high seeds because they could finish with eight or nine victories. That may not be the case for Joliet Catholic and Providence. The Hilltoppers visit Marist, one of the state’s best 8A teams, Friday night and still have St. Patrick and Carmel looming. For playoff reasons, the victories the previous two weeks over St. Viator and Nazareth were huge. But once the 5A playoffs begin, Joliet Catholic will be among the teams to beat regardless of what the seeds say, especially if wingback Ty Isaac is 100 percent at that time.

Providence entertains St. Rita on Friday night and has yet to play Brother Rice and Mount Carmel in the Catholic Blue. The Celtics obviously could win one or more of those games, but even if not, they are lumped in with the “locks” because, with 19 playoff points, they will get in with the probable victories over Lake Forest Academy and St. Ignatius.

Of course, joining the 7A field with a 5-4 or 6-3 record should mean facing difficult opponents from the get-go. And, it would mean someone with a high seed getting a bad break and drawing a foe as tough as Providence in Round 1.

How about other potential playoff teams from the area? Hang a “maybe” tag on Plainfield North (3-1), Lincoln-Way West (2-2), Peotone (3-1), Minooka (1-3) and Plainfield Central (3-1) and an “unlikely” tag on Plainfield East (1-3), Plainfield South (1-3), Joliet West (1-3), Lincoln-Way Central (1-3), Lockport (1-3), Seneca (2-2) and Reed-Custer (1-3).

Plainfield North must win three of five remaining games because of low playoff points. The Tigers begin the second half with Plainfield Central and will meet Oswego and Minooka in Weeks 7 and 8.

Lincoln-Way West needs three wins, and with Lincoln-Way North, Thornton and Bradley remaining, the Warriors will have to earn their spot. Peotone will benefit from not having Wilmington as one of its four Interstate Eight Small crossover foes and may be able to sneak in with five victories.

Minooka must win four of five remaining Southwest Prairie games — and it could happen with Oswego out of the way. Plainfield Central is short on playoff points and must win three more; the Wildcats get Plainfield North on Friday and will finish against Oswego.

Plainfield East must win four of five, and its next two foes are Minooka and Oswego. So the time is now for the Bengals. Plainfield South must win four of five and has Minooka and Oswego upcoming.

Joliet West is interesting. The Tigers need four wins. They host Joliet Central on Saturday, then will meet Lincoln-Way Central and Lockport before finishing against Homewood-Flossmoor and Lincoln-Way East. It may not be likely, but if the Tigers can win the next four before facing Lincoln-Way East, they may have enough playoff points to qualify.

Lockport and Lincoln-Way Central both must win four of five. The Porters have Homewood-Flossmoor, Sandburg and Bolingbrook on their remaining schedule. The Knights get Lincoln-Way East and Bolingbrook after Lockport and Joliet West.

As for Seneca, the Irish better win four of five, and still have Wilmington, Herscher and Manteno to play. And Reed-Custer must win four of five, with Wilmington, Sandwich and Coal City remaining.

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